Would you vote for President Trump in 2020? Take The Survey Here


For Democrats, there is one big fear heading into the 2020 election: A booming economy could save Donald Trump.
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The adage “it’s the economy, stupid” condensed this conventional wisdom to four words: Voters (rightly or wrongly) hold the president accountable America’s financial health and their perceptions of how they and the country are doing economically should be the most important factor when they vote. Politico recently covered how, using economically based predictors, Trump actually seems “on track for a landslide.”

But the link between the economy and presidential approval has become “increasingly untethered,” as several political scientists writing at Political Behavior put it. The break began during the Clinton administration and weakened considerably under George W. Bush. By the time Obama took office, the two became completely severed:

Under Obama’s tenure, neither in- nor out-partisans responded to the economy; the two groups had made up their mind and the economy had not statistical impact on presidential approval for Democrats or Republicans. Preliminary signs indicate that the same is true of the Trump presidency.

CNN’s Harry Enten captured it this way, “Turns out for incumbent presidents, overall approval ratings are far more telling of fates.”

John Sides, the political scientist who with Lynn Vavreck wrote the seminal book The Gamble about the 2012 presidential election, told me over email, “This could complicate an election forecast.”

In other words, does the economy really tell us anything at all about whether Trump will be reelected in 2020? Who knows! We’re in uncharted territory. Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that factors beyond which Democrat prevails in the primary to face Trump will be in play during the 2020 campaign.

Would you vote for President Trump in 2020?

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1 Comments

  1. I BELIEVE EVEN THOUGH SOME PEOPLE SAY THE ECONOMY IS GOOD NOW BECAUSE OF OUR LAST PRESIDENT..I DON'T REALLY BELIEVE THAT THEY BUY THAT..TRUTH BE TOLD THEY KNOW THAT IT IS BECAUSE OF OUR CURRENT PRESIDENT..THEY ARE JUST STUBORN HATE TO ADMIT DEFEAT.

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